Niche Markets

Is evolutionary theory is incomplete and are we failing to understand phenomena as disparate as ecosystem development and the interplay of genes and culture in shaping human evolution

Modelling the spread of Wolbachia in spatially heterogeneous environments

The endosymbiont Wolbachia infects a large number of insect species and is capable of rapid spread when introduced into a novel host population. The bacteria spread by manipulating their hosts' reproduction, and their dynamics are influenced by the demographic structure of the host population and patterns of contact between individuals. Reaction–diffusion models of the spatial spread of Wolbachia provide a simple analytical description of their spatial dynamics but do not account for significant details of host population dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model describing the spatial dynamics of Wolbachia in an age-structured host insect population regulated by juvenile density-dependent competition. The model produces similar dynamics to the reaction–diffusion model in the limiting case where the host's habitat quality is spatially homogeneous and Wolbachia has a small effect on host fitness. When habitat quality varies spatially, Wolbachia spread is usually much slower, and the conditions necessary for local invasion are strongly affected by immigration of insects from surrounding regions. Spread is most difficult when variation in habitat quality is spatially correlated. The results show that spatial variation in the density-dependent competition experienced by juvenile host insects can strongly affect the spread of Wolbachia infections, which is important to the use of Wolbachia to control insect vectors of human disease and other pests

Predicting Wolbachia invasion dynamics in Aedes aegypti populations using models of density-dependent demographic traits

Background Arbovirus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti can be reduced by the introduction and establishment of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia in wild populations of the vector. Wolbachia spreads by increasing the fitness of its hosts relative to uninfected mosquitoes. However, mosquito fitness is also strongly affected by population size through density-dependent competition for limited food resources. We do not understand how this natural variation in fitness affects symbiont spread, which limits our ability to design successful control strategies. Results We develop a mathematical model to predict A. aegypti–Wolbachia dynamics that incorporates larval density-dependent variation in important fitness components of infected and uninfected mosquitoes. Our model explains detailed features of the mosquito–Wolbachia dynamics observed in two independent experimental A. aegypti populations, allowing the combined effects on dynamics of multiple density-dependent fitness components to be characterized. We apply our model to investigate Wolbachia field release dynamics, and show how invasion outcomes can depend strongly on the severity of density-dependent competition at the release site. Specifically, the ratio of released relative to wild mosquitoes required to attain a target infection frequency (at the end of a release program) can vary by nearly an order of magnitude. The time taken for Wolbachia to become established following releases can differ by over 2 years. These effects depend on the relative fitness of field and insectary-reared mosquitoes. Conclusions Models of Wolbachia invasion incorporating density-dependent demographic variation in the host population explain observed dynamics in experimental A. aegypti populations. These models predict strong effects of density-dependence on Wolbachia dynamics in field populations, and can assist in the effective use of Wolbachia to control the transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and zika.</p

A restatement of recent advances in the natural science evidence base concerning neonicotinoid insecticides and insect pollinators

A summary is provided of recent advances in the natural science evidence base concerning the effects of neonicotinoid insecticides on insect pollinators in a format (a ‘restatement’) intended to be accessible to informed but not expert policymakers and stakeholders. Important new studies have been published since our recent review of this field (Godfray et al. 2014 Proc. R. Soc. B 281,20140558. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0558)) and the subject continues to be an area of very active research and high policy relevance